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An outsider's summary of Brexit
05 Dec, 2018

An outsider’s summary of Brexit  before the Parliamentary debates of 4 December 2018 

The arrogance of this generation of Tories continues to reach far beyond their grasp: they must go and make way for a second referendum and another generation of conservatives.

As the deadline of March 2019 approaches, the May Government continues to lose the political capital necessary to finalise the withdrawal agreement and pass it through Parliament.

For the last two years the Prime Minster has been threatening a my deal or no deal scenario, and in doing so is reaching far beyond her grasp and any political mandate her government has ever had. 

The reason that the May government has not been able to even commence negotiations concerning the future trade relationship with the EU and has become entangled in a much broader withdrawal agreement than necessary is because it does not have a political mandate to implement the policies a hard or no deal Brexit entails and for that matter the policies any Brexit deal will entail. 

As the deadline of March 2019 approaches, the May Government continues to lose the political capital necessary to finalise the withdrawal agreement and pass it through Parliament.

For the last two years the Prime Minster has been threatening a my deal or no deal scenario, and in doing so is reaching far beyond her grasp and any political mandate her government has ever had. 

The reason that the May government has not been able to even commence negotiations concerning the future trade relationship with the EU and has become entangled in a much broader withdrawal agreement than necessary is because it does not have a political mandate to implement the policies a hard or no deal Brexit entails and for that matter the policies any Brexit deal will entail. 

Northern Ireland has provided cover for the PM’s weak bargaining position and mandate

Neither the split referendum result of 2016 or the 2017 election results which reduced the Tory majority to a minority even after May played the Brexit card when she began tumbling in the polls can be seen as providing a mandate to negotiate any specific  type of Brexit.  

If anything Northern Ireland has provided cover for the PM’s weak bargaining position and weak mandate.

There is no support in the House of Commons or the country for a no deal Brexit or for the kind the ERG want and any deal coming closer to a reformed EU which is where the majority of both Parliament and the country is at will create a schism in the Tory party which May does not want to be responsible for. The 2017 elections and the referendum itself were not about national interests and nor is the May government’s current deal, they were and are all about internal party politics and about Cameron and May preserving their leadership and the conservative party’s current tenure in power.    

John Nucciarone is a Canadian and member of the New York Bar currently living in London. All views are wholly his own.

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